Sber, Russia’s state-controlled financial and digital giant (previously known as Sberbank), and the Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology (Skoltech), intend to develop software program to “evaluate the carbon balance drawing on remote sensing of the Earth.”
The program aims to “facilitate the comprehensive analysis [which is] required [to make] effective decarbonization decisions and design decarbonization strategies,” says Sber.
Artificial intelligence is used to enhance the precision of the results obtained and support accelerated analysis of big territories. Relevant data was gathered in the course of last year across sources and absorbers of greenhouse gases containing carbon.
“The quality of training datasets is important to ensure the accuracy and reproducibility of AI algorithms. Therefore, data for pilot regions described the state of forests with a total area of more than 6.5 million hectares based on Earth remote sensing data and statistics between 2010 and 2020.”
The researchers used “process-driven biochemical models of the full carbon cycle for forest areas” to estimate carbon stocks and flows. “Hybrid approaches based on carbon cycle modeling, and deep neural networks were used to assess the carbon balance of forest areas [and] analyze remote Earth sensing data.”
Under plans, the software is scheduled for development and testing until the end of 2024.
Associated partners include the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and the Izrael Institute of Global Climate and Ecology (IGCE).
This is one of the first projects of Skoltech’s AI Research Center. Established in late 2021 with state grant support, this organization develops “fundamental AI technology” as well as “applied AI instruments for monitoring, forecasting, ESG risk optimization [and] decarbonization purposes.”
0.1% increase by 2030
While Sber, Skoltech and their partners display high-tech ambitions, the Russian government’s latest plans to decarbonize the economy set only modest goals.
Last year the authorities published a new edition of Russia’s national decarbonization strategy with relatively modest goals — which still marked some progress compared with the previous edition, however. In its intensive scenario, this strategy aims to limit the growth of greenhouse gas emissions to 0.6% in 2030. Their level should be decreased by 79% in 2050, compared with the 2021 numbers. Carbon neutrality should be reached by 2060.
The draft implementation plan under discussion these days at the government level envisions a stabilisation of the emissions over this decade (+0.1% from 2021 to 2030).
While a number of sectors would see their emission continue growing in this period, the plan heavily relies on forests, whose carbon absorption capacity would provide half of the net emission reduction.
Tax and budget measures in support of the transition are yet to be defined.
According to Vladimir Lukin, Director of Corporate Management and Sustainable Development at KPMG Russia, the plan reflects a conservative approach. Decarbonization is seen as a burden rather than a method to modernize the country’s industry by increasing its efficiency. The plan insufficiently addresses the need to reform the energy and industrial sectors, he said in an exchange with business daily Kommersant.
